TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124268
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191214119––
Radek Benes
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 59.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 31–37 Radek Benes Jan Krupnik has won 31 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-37 in 68
Benes
Wrong
gap of 6 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1616 vs Benes 1556
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 20% vs Benes 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 60% vs Benes 20%
Krupnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -3 · Benes -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.66 / Benes 2.05
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Krupnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13124268
Krupnik1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 133 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it72% 90 of 125
Benes2.05
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 59 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayBenes4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik57.1%4 of 7
AwayBenes33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik7Benes3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik7Benes3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S4Krupnik3Benes3n = 6split evenly
S5Krupnik1Benes2n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikBenesK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.0+3.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 873 vs 489 / 94151.6%52%450 / 873 vs 489 / 941Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.66/Benes 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik44741111113R. Benes3711113662
WAug 29 · 18:15J. Krupnik411111193R. Benes3498170
LAug 29 · 15:15J. Krupnik4511711882R. Benes47611811113
WAug 26 · 14:10J. Krupnik4481111143R. Benes391179121
WAug 25 · 06:10J. Krupnik331111113R. Benes197480
LAug 23 · 19:10J. Krupnik3911511392R. Benes46711611113
LAug 6 · 08:10J. Krupnik2711970R. Benes351311113
LJul 27 · 10:40J. Krupnik34118691R. Benes4181111113
WJul 23 · 10:45J. Krupnik331111113R. Benes204790
WJul 23 · 06:15J. Krupnik4111118113R. Benes32841191
J. Krupnik10
LSep 13 · 12:35J. Krupnik2.059911101E. Precek1.6811115123LSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.0011811762J. Skvrna1.73711811113LSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.8311116962T. Krenek1.83711111113WSep 13 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.5714117113E. Precek2.251261171LSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.91711118113T. Krenek1.8011341152WSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491WSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171
R. Benes10
WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133LSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771WSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113
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