TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114141
Played Sep 11Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119211117117––
Radek Benes
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 69 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 11–9 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:28What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Moravec
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1698 vs Benes 1577
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Benes 40%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 30% vs Benes 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -4 · Benes +1
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.67 / Benes 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Moravec)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13114141
Moravec1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 111 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Benes2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 76 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec6wins
AwayBenes4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec75%3 of 4
AwayBenes50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Moravec6Benes4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Moravec6Benes4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Moravec4Benes2n = 6Moravec took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecBenesM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.9+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 446 vs 489 / 93857%52.1%254 / 446 vs 489 / 938Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.67/Benes 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 2 · 09:15B. Moravec—1111133R. Benes—77110
WJun 2 · 06:40B. Moravec—101312113R. Benes—12111061
LMay 22 · 13:40B. Moravec—119101192R. Benes—411127113
WMay 4 · 14:45B. Moravec—71111113R. Benes—118661
WApr 3 · 10:10B. Moravec—1211143R. Benes—102120
LMar 25 · 18:20B. Moravec—51140R. Benes—1113113
WMar 25 · 17:15B. Moravec—101111113R. Benes—124831
LMar 13 · 17:10B. Moravec—9760R. Benes—1111113
LMar 6 · 16:15B. Moravec—613681R. Benes—111111113
WFeb 20 · 16:10B. Moravec—125113113R. Benes—101161182
B. Moravec10
WSep 11 · 15:45B. Moravec1.8011118113J. Pribyl1.91861161LSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113LSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113LSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133WSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113
R. Benes10
WSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113WSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190
Upcoming Matches
B. Moravec
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R. Benes
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