TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114167
Played Sep 11Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116811116––
Jan Pribyl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Borek Moravec at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 12–15 Jan Pribyl Borek Moravec has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Pribyl
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1707 vs Pribyl 1721
Pribyl
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Pribyl 60%
Pribyl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 30% vs Pribyl 60%
Pribyl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Pribyl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.80 / Pribyl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13114167
Moravec1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 111 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Pribyl1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayPribyl7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPribyl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec75%3 of 4
AwayPribyl100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec4Pribyl6n = 10Pribyl took 6 of 10
S2Moravec3Pribyl7n = 10Pribyl took 7 of 10
S3Moravec7Pribyl3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Moravec4Pribyl2n = 6Moravec took 4 of 6
S5Moravec0Pribyl4n = 4Pribyl took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecPribylM − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.0−0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 447 vs 111 / 20257.1%55%255 / 447 vs 111 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.80/Pribyl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec—119911112J. Pribyl—611114133
LJun 27 · 09:15B. Moravec—861161J. Pribyl—11113113
WJun 27 · 07:45B. Moravec—11911113J. Pribyl—911761
LJun 1 · 17:15B. Moravec—67100J. Pribyl—1111123
LJun 1 · 16:10B. Moravec—77111142J. Pribyl—111149113
LMay 28 · 16:10B. Moravec—10980J. Pribyl—1211113
WMay 13 · 17:15B. Moravec—1211113J. Pribyl—10990
LMay 13 · 15:40B. Moravec—51111472J. Pribyl—114611113
LMay 5 · 14:40B. Moravec—107111192J. Pribyl—121188113
WApr 28 · 16:38B. Moravec—1112113J. Pribyl—71040
B. Moravec10
WSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771LSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113LSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113LSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133WSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113
J. Pribyl10
LSep 11 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.7511119113J. Pribyl1.40551151LSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143WSep 10 · 17:20J. Skvrna1.538970J. Pribyl2.381111113WSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101WSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133LSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl1.531011119113D. Vitasek2.3812281132LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680WAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz2.25381181J. Pribyl1.5711118113
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