TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472973
Played Aug 22Finished
Bruno Mrowetz
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311811118811––
Jan Pribyl
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJan Pribyl to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Pribyl at 64.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 0–3 Jan Pribyl Bruno Mrowetz has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pribyl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Pribyl
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1576 vs Pribyl 1699
Pribyl
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 60% vs Pribyl 40%
Mrowetz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 50% vs Pribyl 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz -1 · Pribyl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pribyl) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pribyl form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 2.25 / Pribyl 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Pribyl)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12472973
Mrowetz2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Pribyl1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 37 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMrowetz0wins
AwayPribyl3wins
Pribyl leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetzn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPribyl100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz0Pribyl3n = 3Pribyl took 3 of 3
S2Mrowetz0Pribyl3n = 3Pribyl took 3 of 3
S3Mrowetz2Pribyl1n = 3Mrowetz took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMrowetzPribylM − PBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match25.737.0−11.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 436 vs 108 / 19649.8%55.1%217 / 436 vs 108 / 196Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PribylMrowetz 2.25/Pribyl 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Pribyl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pribyl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz—381181J. Pribyl—11118113
LJun 2 · 17:10B. Mrowetz—651181J. Pribyl—11114113
LJun 2 · 16:10B. Mrowetz—5840J. Pribyl—1111113
B. Mrowetz10
WSep 7 · 13:10T. Kindl1.968890B. Mrowetz1.701111113LSep 7 · 11:40T. Kindl2.2091112183B. Mrowetz1.6111610161WSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113WSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113
J. Pribyl10
WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl1.531011119113D. Vitasek2.3812281132LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680LAug 19 · 13:08T. Krenek1.8071111113J. Pribyl1.91117981WAug 19 · 12:15J. Krupnik2.006840J. Pribyl1.731111113LAug 19 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.73411691T. Krenek2.0011711113WAug 19 · 09:45M. Macurak2.2511511672J. Pribyl1.57811911113LAug 6 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.80113119153J. Pribyl1.91711711132WAug 6 · 11:45D. Pawlik2.50711100J. Pribyl1.501113123WAug 6 · 11:15T. Kindl2.2091121262J. Pribyl1.611191110113
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