TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457488
Played Aug 19Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118511119611711
Jan Pribyl
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:41 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJan Pribyl to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Pribyl at 58.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 2–2 Jan Pribyl Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:41What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pribyl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1671 vs Pribyl 1647
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 60% vs Pribyl 40%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Pribyl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +1 · Pribyl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pribyl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pribyl form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 2.25 / Pribyl 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Pribyl)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12457488
Macurak2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 65 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back28% 20 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Pribyl1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 50 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMacurak2wins
AwayPribyl2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak2Pribyl2n = 4split evenly
S2Macurak3Pribyl1n = 4Macurak took 3 of 4
S3Macurak1Pribyl3n = 4Pribyl took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMacurakPribylM − PBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.237.20.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 415 vs 103 / 18849.9%54.8%207 / 415 vs 103 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PribylMacurak 2.25/Pribyl 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Pribyl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pribyl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 29 · 09:15M. Macurak—711811113J. Pribyl—11411772
WJul 29 · 08:15M. Macurak—1111123J. Pribyl—76100
LJul 28 · 07:10M. Macurak—11159882J. Pribyl—7131111113
LFeb 20 · 11:45M. Macurak—5470J. Pribyl—1111113
M. Macurak10
LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113
J. Pribyl10
WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl1.531011119113D. Vitasek2.3812281132LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680WAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz2.25381181J. Pribyl1.5711118113LAug 19 · 13:08T. Krenek1.8071111113J. Pribyl1.91117981WAug 19 · 12:15J. Krupnik2.006840J. Pribyl1.731111113LAug 19 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.73411691T. Krenek2.0011711113LAug 6 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.80113119153J. Pribyl1.91711711132WAug 6 · 11:45D. Pawlik2.50711100J. Pribyl1.501113123WAug 6 · 11:15T. Kindl2.2091121262J. Pribyl1.611191110113
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