TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475570
Played Aug 22Finished
Jan Pribyl
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012112118911113
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Pribyl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Pribyl above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 88 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jan Pribyl at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jan Pribyl 8–5 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pribyl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Pribyl
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pribyl 1699 vs Vitasek 1562
Pribyl
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pribyl 60% vs Vitasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pribyl 60% vs Vitasek 40%
Pribyl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pribyl -1 · Vitasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Pribyl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPribyl 1.53 / Vitasek 2.38
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Pribyl)+8.8pp
TT Cup · #12475570
Pribyl1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 48 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 37 of 50
Vitasek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 102 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back28% 32 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePribyl7wins
AwayVitasek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPribyl leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePribyl100%5 of 5
AwayVitasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pribyl5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Pribyl7Vitasek3n = 10Pribyl took 7 of 10
S3Pribyl7Vitasek3n = 10Pribyl took 7 of 10
S4Pribyl2Vitasek5n = 7Vitasek took 5 of 7
S5Pribyl4Vitasek1n = 5Pribyl took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPribylVitasekP − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.4+3.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPribylVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 196 vs 282 / 57955.1%48.7%108 / 196 vs 282 / 579Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PribylPribyl 1.53/Vitasek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.6%
Pribyl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pribyl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl—1011119113D. Vitasek—12281132
WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl—1111113D. Vitasek—8680
WJul 18 · 09:45J. Pribyl—119512113D. Vitasek—911111072
WJun 27 · 07:15J. Pribyl—1311113D. Vitasek—11540
LJun 7 · 16:50J. Pribyl—8713111D. Vitasek—111111133
WJun 7 · 13:45J. Pribyl—1110113133D. Vitasek—912711112
WApr 26 · 14:15J. Pribyl—611115113D. Vitasek—11771152
LMar 17 · 15:15J. Pribyl—61161172D. Vitasek—119116113
LFeb 22 · 06:45J. Pribyl—6119101D. Vitasek—11811123
WFeb 14 · 06:40J. Pribyl—1111113D. Vitasek—7770
J. Pribyl10
LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680WAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz2.25381181J. Pribyl1.5711118113LAug 19 · 13:08T. Krenek1.8071111113J. Pribyl1.91117981WAug 19 · 12:15J. Krupnik2.006840J. Pribyl1.731111113LAug 19 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.73411691T. Krenek2.0011711113WAug 19 · 09:45M. Macurak2.2511511672J. Pribyl1.57811911113LAug 6 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.80113119153J. Pribyl1.91711711132WAug 6 · 11:45D. Pawlik2.50711100J. Pribyl1.501113123WAug 6 · 11:15T. Kindl2.2091121262J. Pribyl1.611191110113
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680
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