TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114133
Played Sep 11Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115911115––
Jan Pribyl
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeJan Pribyl to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 68 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Pribyl at 69.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 2–8 Jan Pribyl Frantisek Chaloupka has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pribyl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Pribyl
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1604 vs Pribyl 1737
Pribyl
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 40% vs Pribyl 60%
Pribyl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 30% vs Pribyl 60%
Pribyl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka +2 · Pribyl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Pribyl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pribyl form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 2.75 / Pribyl 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Pribyl)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13114133
Chaloupka2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Pribyl1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 51 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka2wins
AwayPribyl8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPribyl leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPribyl75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka2Pribyl8n = 10Pribyl took 8 of 10
S2Chaloupka4Pribyl6n = 10Pribyl took 6 of 10
S3Chaloupka2Pribyl8n = 10Pribyl took 8 of 10
S4Chaloupka1Pribyl5n = 6Pribyl took 5 of 6
S5Chaloupka2Pribyl1n = 3Chaloupka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaPribylC − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.2−5.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 502 vs 111 / 20151.8%55.2%260 / 502 vs 111 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PribylChaloupka 2.75/Pribyl 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.8%
Pribyl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 16:15F. Chaloupka—10134101J. Pribyl—121111123
LJun 24 · 14:40F. Chaloupka—113691J. Pribyl—81111113
LJun 10 · 16:45F. Chaloupka—11911492J. Pribyl—911611113
LJun 10 · 13:40F. Chaloupka—7115121J. Pribyl—11511143
LMay 13 · 15:10F. Chaloupka—6680J. Pribyl—1111113
LMay 5 · 17:10F. Chaloupka—6890J. Pribyl—1111113
WMay 5 · 14:10F. Chaloupka—713118143J. Pribyl—1111211122
LMar 24 · 17:40F. Chaloupka—7850J. Pribyl—1111113
WMar 24 · 15:40F. Chaloupka—911911113J. Pribyl—11611272
LMar 12 · 17:10F. Chaloupka—8860J. Pribyl—1111113
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113WSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101LSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113LSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113
J. Pribyl10
LSep 11 · 15:45B. Moravec1.8011118113J. Pribyl1.91861161LSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143WSep 10 · 17:20J. Skvrna1.538970J. Pribyl2.381111113WSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101WSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133LSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl1.531011119113D. Vitasek2.3812281132LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680WAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz2.25381181J. Pribyl1.5711118113
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