TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113594
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Pribyl
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111712109111214
Radek Benes
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Pribyl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Pribyl above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 106 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Jan Pribyl at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Jan Pribyl 5–11 Radek Benes Jan Pribyl has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Benes
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pribyl 1752 vs Benes 1577
Pribyl
Wrong
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pribyl 80% vs Benes 20%
Pribyl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pribyl 70% vs Benes 40%
Pribyl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pribyl +3 · Benes -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPribyl 1.91 / Benes 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13113594
Pribyl1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Benes1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 189 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it94% 77 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it74% 125 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePribyl3wins
AwayBenes7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePribyl50%3 of 6
AwayBenes100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pribyl6Benes4n = 10Pribyl took 6 of 10
S2Pribyl5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Pribyl4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Pribyl1Benes6n = 7Benes took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPribylBenesP − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.536.4−2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPribylBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 200 vs 488 / 93755.5%52.1%111 / 200 vs 488 / 937Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesPribyl 1.91/Benes 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 09:13J. Pribyl—117541R. Benes—81111113
LAug 6 · 06:10J. Pribyl—116119112R. Benes—811811133
LJul 28 · 09:20J. Pribyl—1011531R. Benes—12511113
WJul 28 · 06:10J. Pribyl—11127113R. Benes—5101151
LJul 20 · 12:40J. Pribyl—8780R. Benes—1111113
WJul 20 · 12:10J. Pribyl—1111113R. Benes—5780
LJul 18 · 11:45J. Pribyl—911991R. Benes—11611113
LJul 13 · 11:45J. Pribyl—116761R. Benes—91111113
WJul 9 · 13:15J. Pribyl—1111123R. Benes—89100
LJul 9 · 11:40J. Pribyl—931191R. Benes—11118113
J. Pribyl10
WSep 10 · 17:20J. Skvrna1.538970J. Pribyl2.381111113WSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101WSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133LSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl1.531011119113D. Vitasek2.3812281132LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680WAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz2.25381181J. Pribyl1.5711118113LAug 19 · 13:08T. Krenek1.8071111113J. Pribyl1.91117981WAug 19 · 12:15J. Krupnik2.006840J. Pribyl1.731111113
R. Benes10
LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113WSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.