TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110582
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911711––––
Jan Pribyl
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:52 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 8–8 Jan Pribyl Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Skvrna beat Pribyl 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1705 vs Pribyl 1728
Pribyl
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 100% vs Pribyl 60%
Skvrna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 70% vs Pribyl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +5 · Pribyl +2
Skvrna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pribyl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.53 / Pribyl 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Skvrna)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13110582
Skvrna1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 227 of 387
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 159 of 215
Pribyl2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 17 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwayPribyl4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna100%5 of 5
AwayPribyl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna5Pribyl5n = 10split evenly
S2Skvrna6Pribyl4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna5Pribyl5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvrna6Pribyl2n = 8Skvrna took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaPribylS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.337.7+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 800 vs 110 / 19958.1%55.3%465 / 800 vs 110 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.53/Pribyl 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pribyl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna—11117143J. Pribyl—8911121
WAug 3 · 09:40J. Skvrna—11118113J. Pribyl—741191
LJul 29 · 06:45J. Skvrna—9612101J. Pribyl—111110123
WJul 20 · 11:10J. Skvrna—1111113J. Pribyl—8980
LJul 19 · 15:40J. Skvrna—51181182J. Pribyl—114119113
WJun 10 · 15:40J. Skvrna—14115113J. Pribyl—1291191
WJun 7 · 14:45J. Skvrna—91111133J. Pribyl—1179111
LJun 1 · 14:40J. Skvrna—6590J. Pribyl—1111113
WMay 17 · 11:40J. Skvrna—111212113J. Pribyl—6141071
LApr 26 · 16:55J. Skvrna—1081161J. Pribyl—12118113
J. Skvrna10
WSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113WSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113WSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121WSep 10 · 12:49T. Grmela2.20117871J. Skvrna1.6131111113WSep 10 · 11:45B. Mrowetz2.0011118682J. Skvrna1.73731111113LSep 10 · 11:15L. Slavik3.50641111113J. Skvrna1.2811118272LSep 10 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.57117591T. Grmela2.2581111113WSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133
J. Pribyl10
WSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101WSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133LSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121WAug 22 · 13:15J. Pribyl1.531011119113D. Vitasek2.3812281132LAug 22 · 12:15K. Kleprlik2.631116113J. Pribyl1.4471460WAug 22 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.671111113D. Vitasek2.108680WAug 22 · 09:45B. Mrowetz2.25381181J. Pribyl1.5711118113LAug 19 · 13:08T. Krenek1.8071111113J. Pribyl1.91117981WAug 19 · 12:15J. Krupnik2.006840J. Pribyl1.731111113LAug 19 · 11:15J. Pribyl1.73411691T. Krenek2.0011711113
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