TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106831
Played Sep 10Finished
Bruno Mrowetz
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117113811611811
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 9–17 Jan Skvrna Bruno Mrowetz has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:52What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1706 vs Skvrna 1644
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 80% vs Skvrna 60%
Mrowetz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 70% vs Skvrna 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz +3 · Skvrna -1
Mrowetz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 2.00 / Skvrna 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvrna)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13106831
Mrowetz2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 76 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Skvrna1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 227 of 387
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 159 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz50%2 of 4
AwaySkvrna66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S2Mrowetz6Skvrna4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S3Mrowetz4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S4Mrowetz5Skvrna4n = 9Mrowetz took 5 of 9
S5Mrowetz2Skvrna4n = 6Skvrna took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzSkvrnaM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.242.5−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 482 vs 460 / 79450.6%57.9%244 / 482 vs 460 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaMrowetz 2.00/Skvrna 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 19:45B. Mrowetz—15711882J. Skvrna—1311511113
WAug 9 · 11:40B. Mrowetz—1111109113J. Skvrna—99121162
LAug 2 · 13:18B. Mrowetz—55100J. Skvrna—1111123
LAug 2 · 10:45B. Mrowetz—91111792J. Skvrna—119911113
LJul 22 · 05:40B. Mrowetz—31181172J. Skvrna—117117113
WJul 20 · 15:40B. Mrowetz—101111113J. Skvrna—128781
LJul 15 · 11:10B. Mrowetz—1185111J. Skvrna—81111133
LJul 10 · 14:15B. Mrowetz—74111182J. Skvrna—111187113
WJul 10 · 09:45B. Mrowetz—11116113J. Skvrna—851181
WJul 6 · 16:10B. Mrowetz—911411113J. Skvrna—11511642
B. Mrowetz10
WSep 10 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.6711811113T. Grmela2.10611541WSep 10 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.73116115113L. Slavik2.0071191162WSep 7 · 13:10T. Kindl1.968890B. Mrowetz1.701111113LSep 7 · 11:40T. Kindl2.2091112183B. Mrowetz1.6111610161WSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113WSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580
J. Skvrna10
LSep 10 · 11:15L. Slavik3.50641111113J. Skvrna1.2811118272LSep 10 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.57117591T. Grmela2.2581111113WSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133WSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592WSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113WSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.61812101172T. Kindl2.201110122113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Skvrna
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