TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106824
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukas Slavik
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611411118112117
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 82 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 56.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 2–4 Jan Skvrna Lukas Slavik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1629 vs Skvrna 1644
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 40% vs Skvrna 60%
Skvrna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 50% vs Skvrna 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -2 · Skvrna -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 3.50 / Skvrna 1.28
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Skvrna)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13106824
Slavik3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 42 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Skvrna1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 227 of 387
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 159 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSlavik2wins
AwaySkvrna4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSkvrna leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkvrna100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik3Skvrna3n = 6split evenly
S2Slavik3Skvrna3n = 6split evenly
S3Slavik2Skvrna4n = 6Skvrna took 4 of 6
S4Slavik2Skvrna4n = 6Skvrna took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSlavikSkvrnaSlavik − SkvrnaBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.343.0−6.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 210 vs 460 / 79451.9%57.9%109 / 210 vs 460 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSlavik 3.50/Skvrna 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.1%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Slavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 10:45L. Slavik—114119113J. Skvrna—31191182
LSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik—116791J. Skvrna—81111113
LSep 1 · 11:45L. Slavik—7128111J. Skvrna—111011133
LJul 2 · 13:40L. Slavik—51141122J. Skvrna—119119113
WJun 15 · 12:35L. Slavik—111011113J. Skvrna—812891
LJun 15 · 09:40L. Slavik—611261J. Skvrna—11911113
L. Slavik10
LSep 10 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.73116115113L. Slavik2.0071191162LSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113LSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110WSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133LSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390WSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182LSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik2.14116791J. Skvrna1.5881111113
J. Skvrna10
WSep 10 · 11:45B. Mrowetz2.0011118682J. Skvrna1.73731111113LSep 10 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.57117591T. Grmela2.2581111113WSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111LSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133WSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592WSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113WSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik2.14116791J. Skvrna1.5881111113
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