TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114138
Played Sep 11Finished
Radek Benes
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8118111113––––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 62 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 12–18 Frantisek Chaloupka Radek Benes has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Chaloupka
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1584 vs Chaloupka 1620
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 40% vs Chaloupka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Chaloupka +3
Chaloupka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.25 / Chaloupka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Chaloupka)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13114138
Benes2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 76 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Chaloupka1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 105 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it74% 91 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayChaloupka6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayChaloupka85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Chaloupka7n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Benes3Chaloupka7n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S3Benes5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes3Chaloupka2n = 5Benes took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesChaloupkaB − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.437.1−3.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 939 vs 261 / 50352.1%51.9%489 / 939 vs 261 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaBenes 2.25/Chaloupka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 11 · 09:45R. Benes—4890F. Chaloupka—1111113
WJul 1 · 16:45R. Benes—12511113F. Chaloupka—1011981
WJul 1 · 14:40R. Benes—101111113F. Chaloupka—123891
LJun 20 · 14:15R. Benes—98130F. Chaloupka—1111153
LJun 12 · 16:30R. Benes—6360F. Chaloupka—1111113
LJun 12 · 15:15R. Benes—9111141F. Chaloupka—11139113
WMay 30 · 19:40R. Benes—1111123F. Chaloupka—79100
WMay 24 · 15:40R. Benes—1171212123F. Chaloupka—4111014102
LMay 22 · 16:10R. Benes—51150F. Chaloupka—1113113
LMay 4 · 16:50R. Benes—71141192F. Chaloupka—115116113
R. Benes10
LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771WSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 11 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.7511119113J. Pribyl1.40551151WSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113WSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101LSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113LSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880
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