TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117674
Played Sep 12Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214911711––––
Jan Pribyl
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:43 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJan Pribyl to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Pribyl below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 64 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jan Pribyl at 58.1%
64 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 2–3 Jan Pribyl Michal Macurak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:43What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pribyl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1722 vs Pribyl 1676
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 80% vs Pribyl 20%
Macurak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Pribyl 40%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +3 · Pribyl -2
Macurak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Pribyl) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pribyl form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 2.20 / Pribyl 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Pribyl)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13117674
Macurak2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Pribyl1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 52 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 39 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMacurak2wins
AwayPribyl3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderPribyl leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak33.3%1 of 3
AwayPribyln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak3Pribyl2n = 5Macurak took 3 of 5
S2Macurak3Pribyl2n = 5Macurak took 3 of 5
S3Macurak2Pribyl3n = 5Pribyl took 3 of 5
S4Macurak1Pribyl2n = 3Pribyl took 2 of 3
S5Macurak1Pribyl2n = 3Pribyl took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMacurakPribylM − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.839.8−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakPribylBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 470 vs 112 / 20650.9%54.4%239 / 470 vs 112 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PribylMacurak 2.20/Pribyl 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Pribyl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pribyl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 19 · 09:45M. Macurak—11511672J. Pribyl—811911113
WJul 29 · 09:15M. Macurak—711811113J. Pribyl—11411772
WJul 29 · 08:15M. Macurak—1111123J. Pribyl—76100
LJul 28 · 07:10M. Macurak—11159882J. Pribyl—7131111113
LFeb 20 · 11:45M. Macurak—5470J. Pribyl—1111113
M. Macurak10
WSep 12 · 10:40M. Macurak1.831111113A. Kanak1.838780WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861
J. Pribyl10
LSep 12 · 11:10D. Jr2.00711115113J. Pribyl1.7311981162LSep 12 · 10:10J. Pribyl1.7311551192A. Kanak2.00811115113WSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 15:45B. Moravec1.8011118113J. Pribyl1.91861161LSep 11 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.7511119113J. Pribyl1.40551151LSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143WSep 10 · 17:20J. Skvrna1.538970J. Pribyl2.381111113WSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101WSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133LSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121
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