TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123737
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.71
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
131511912141416––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 13-13
Point 100 set 4, 13-13 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
100 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Macurak 8–10 Dalibor Velky Jr Michal Macurak has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Macurak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1718 vs Jr 1569
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 80% vs Jr 60%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 50% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +1 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.71 / Jr 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Macurak)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13123737
Macurak1.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Jr2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 106 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak5wins
AwayJr5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak42.9%3 of 7
AwayJr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak7Jr3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S2Macurak3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Macurak6Jr4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak4Jr4n = 8split evenly
S5Macurak2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakJrM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.1+1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakJrBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 472 vs 261 / 52350.9%49.9%240 / 472 vs 261 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.71/Jr 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.3%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak481131111123D. Jr50911713102
WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak331111113D. Jr229760
WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak4291111113D. Jr31116861
WSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak3851111113D. Jr28116471
LAug 20 · 06:45M. Macurak4111381452D. Jr505111112113
WAug 13 · 10:45M. Macurak45118114113D. Jr4171141182
LAug 7 · 08:10M. Macurak52111381192D. Jr46615113113
LAug 5 · 12:39M. Macurak4711711992D. Jr46911411113
LAug 5 · 10:40M. Macurak2410680D. Jr341211113
LJul 28 · 08:48M. Macurak321174101D. Jr4391111123
M. Macurak10
LSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133WSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102LSep 12 · 11:40M. Macurak2.2012970J. Pribyl1.611411113WSep 12 · 10:40M. Macurak1.831111113A. Kanak1.838780WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482
D. Jr10
LSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102WSep 12 · 12:10A. Kanak2.0078100D. Jr1.731111123WSep 12 · 11:10D. Jr2.00711115113J. Pribyl1.7311981162LSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760WSep 8 · 12:35T. Kindl1.67791351D. Jr2.10111111113LSep 8 · 12:10D. Jr2.254990T. Kindl1.571111113LSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890LSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143WSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113
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