TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124951
Played Sep 13Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119911711911
Michal Moravec
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 8–6 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Jr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1648 vs Moravec 1456
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Moravec 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Moravec 20%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Moravec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Moravec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13124951
Jr1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 68 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 52 of 74
Moravec1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr7wins
AwayMoravec3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr83.3%5 of 6
AwayMoravec50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Moravec4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr6Moravec4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr6Moravec4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr5Moravec1n = 6Jr took 5 of 6
S5Jr2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrMoravecJ − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.637.6+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 527 vs 182 / 36950.1%49.3%264 / 527 vs 182 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Moravec 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 17:30D. Jr48881111102M. Moravec51111198123
WJul 30 · 14:15D. Jr361213113M. Moravec30101190
WJul 1 · 10:10D. Jr331111113M. Moravec236980
LMay 20 · 12:10D. Jr166730M. Moravec331111113
WMay 10 · 18:15D. Jr4211119113M. Moravec35871191
WApr 23 · 12:45D. Jr47711611123M. Moravec46119115102
WApr 23 · 11:40D. Jr521011812113M. Moravec48126111092
WApr 15 · 13:15D. Jr331111113M. Moravec187560
LApr 15 · 12:10D. Jr561211111482M. Moravec571013716113
WApr 14 · 13:15D. Jr4311912113M. Moravec357111071
D. Jr10
WSep 13 · 19:40M. Macurak1.67101191182D. Jr2.10124116113WSep 13 · 19:10R. Sedlacek1.536980D. Jr2.381111113WSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik1.53131111882D. Jr2.38154411113WSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113LSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163LSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102WSep 12 · 12:10A. Kanak2.0078100D. Jr1.731111123WSep 12 · 11:10D. Jr2.00711115113J. Pribyl1.7311981162LSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760
M. Moravec10
LSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Jr
Nothing scheduled
M. Moravec
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