TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125790
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315114114811811
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 19–14 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krupnik beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.53 / Jr 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Krupnik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13125790
Krupnik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 133 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it72% 90 of 125
Jr2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 106 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayJr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik6Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik6Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik5Jr4n = 9Krupnik took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikJrK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.236.9+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikJrBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 876 vs 263 / 52651.6%50%452 / 876 vs 263 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.53/Jr 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik3911116113D. Jr32851181
WSep 4 · 07:10J. Krupnik4615118123D. Jr3713311101
LAug 29 · 15:45J. Krupnik4387111162D. Jr46111194113
WAug 15 · 21:24J. Krupnik549111112113D. Jr4011451462
WAug 15 · 19:15J. Krupnik341112113D. Jr2271050
LAug 14 · 07:40J. Krupnik33115891D. Jr4291111113
LAug 7 · 06:10J. Krupnik4391311101D. Jr4611158123
LAug 3 · 08:10J. Krupnik33871171D. Jr4111118113
WAug 2 · 18:15J. Krupnik4211711133D. Jr336115111
WJul 23 · 06:45J. Krupnik45111112113D. Jr30931441
J. Krupnik10
LSep 14 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.67134781T. Kindl2.10111111113LSep 14 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9110101111102J. Skvrna1.80121296123WSep 14 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.801111113T. Kindl1.917470LSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113LSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak1.7311119113J. Krupnik2.00741141WSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 13 · 12:35J. Krupnik2.059911101E. Precek1.6811115123LSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.0011811762J. Skvrna1.73711811113LSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.8311116962T. Krenek1.83711111113
D. Jr10
LSep 13 · 21:14M. Macurak1.8311136113D. Jr1.835111181WSep 13 · 19:40M. Macurak1.67101191182D. Jr2.10124116113WSep 13 · 19:10R. Sedlacek1.536980D. Jr2.381111113LSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113WSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113LSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163LSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102WSep 12 · 12:10A. Kanak2.0078100D. Jr1.731111123WSep 12 · 11:10D. Jr2.00711115113J. Pribyl1.7311981162
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