TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124953
Played Sep 13Finished
Radek Benes
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111131311711811
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:51 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 21–23 Dalibor Velky Jr Radek Benes has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1554 vs Jr 1600
Jr
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.00 / Jr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13124953
Benes2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 59 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Jr1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 68 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 52 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayJr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJr62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S2Benes3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Benes7Jr3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes4Jr4n = 8split evenly
S5Benes3Jr1n = 4Benes took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesJrB − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.941.9−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesJrBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 943 vs 262 / 52452%50%490 / 943 vs 262 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrBenes 2.00/Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes2587100D. Jr341111123
WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes3911611113D. Jr32711681
LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes27661141D. Jr4211119113
LSep 2 · 08:45R. Benes237790D. Jr331111113
LSep 2 · 06:15R. Benes4351181182D. Jr48117118113
WAug 31 · 09:10R. Benes51911119113D. Jr4011571162
WAug 31 · 06:10R. Benes559131111113D. Jr4911159592
WAug 29 · 17:30R. Benes51161112123D. Jr4518710101
LAug 29 · 13:45R. Benes37891191D. Jr4111118113
WAug 13 · 13:20R. Benes48122167113D. Jr551011141192
R. Benes10
WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133LSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771WSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113
D. Jr10
LSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163LSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102WSep 12 · 12:10A. Kanak2.0078100D. Jr1.731111123WSep 12 · 11:10D. Jr2.00711115113J. Pribyl1.7311981162LSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760WSep 8 · 12:35T. Kindl1.67791351D. Jr2.10111111113LSep 8 · 12:10D. Jr2.254990T. Kindl1.571111113LSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890
Upcoming Matches
R. Benes
Nothing scheduled
D. Jr
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