TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127028
Played Sep 14Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114511119711711
Radek Benes
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 31–37 Radek Benes Jan Krupnik has won 31 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-37 in 68
Benes
Correct
gap of 6 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1585 vs Benes 1529
Krupnik
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 40% vs Benes 20%
Krupnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 40% vs Benes 20%
Krupnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -2 · Benes -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.83 / Benes 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13127028
Krupnik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Benes1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayBenes4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik57.1%4 of 7
AwayBenes33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik7Benes3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik7Benes3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S4Krupnik3Benes3n = 6split evenly
S5Krupnik1Benes2n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikBenesK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.0+3.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 877 vs 490 / 94551.5%51.9%452 / 877 vs 490 / 945Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.83/Benes 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik44741111113R. Benes3711113662
WAug 29 · 18:15J. Krupnik411111193R. Benes3498170
LAug 29 · 15:15J. Krupnik4511711882R. Benes47611811113
WAug 26 · 14:10J. Krupnik4481111143R. Benes391179121
WAug 25 · 06:10J. Krupnik331111113R. Benes197480
LAug 23 · 19:10J. Krupnik3911511392R. Benes46711611113
LAug 6 · 08:10J. Krupnik2711970R. Benes351311113
LJul 27 · 10:40J. Krupnik34118691R. Benes4181111113
WJul 23 · 10:45J. Krupnik331111113R. Benes204790
WJul 23 · 06:15J. Krupnik4111118113R. Benes32841191
J. Krupnik10
WSep 14 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.801111113T. Kindl1.917470LSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik1.53131111882D. Jr2.38154411113LSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak1.7311119113J. Krupnik2.00741141WSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 13 · 12:35J. Krupnik2.059911101E. Precek1.6811115123LSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.0011811762J. Skvrna1.73711811113LSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.8311116962T. Krenek1.83711111113WSep 13 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.5714117113E. Precek2.251261171LSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113
R. Benes10
LSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113LSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113WSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133LSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771WSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123
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