TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124948
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012114911116811
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Michal Macurak at 58.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 8–11 Dalibor Velky Jr Michal Macurak has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Jr beat Macurak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Macurak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1694 vs Jr 1622
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 80% vs Jr 60%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 70% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +4 · Jr +1
Macurak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Macurak)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13124948
Macurak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Jr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 106 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak5wins
AwayJr5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak50%3 of 6
AwayJr50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak6Jr4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S2Macurak4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Macurak6Jr4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak4Jr4n = 8split evenly
S5Macurak2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakJrM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.2+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakJrBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 478 vs 265 / 52951.1%50.1%244 / 478 vs 265 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.67/Jr 2.10
Miss
What we said
58.2%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak50131112141D. Jr5415914163
WSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak481131111123D. Jr50911713102
WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak331111113D. Jr229760
WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak4291111113D. Jr31116861
WSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak3851111113D. Jr28116471
LAug 20 · 06:45M. Macurak4111381452D. Jr505111112113
WAug 13 · 10:45M. Macurak45118114113D. Jr4171141182
LAug 7 · 08:10M. Macurak52111381192D. Jr46615113113
LAug 5 · 12:39M. Macurak4711711992D. Jr46911411113
LAug 5 · 10:40M. Macurak2410680D. Jr341211113
M. Macurak10
WSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 13 · 17:40M. Macurak1.611111113R. Sedlacek2.203340WSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113WSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak1.7311119113J. Krupnik2.00741141LSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163WSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102LSep 12 · 11:40M. Macurak2.2012970J. Pribyl1.611411113WSep 12 · 10:40M. Macurak1.831111113A. Kanak1.838780WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760
D. Jr10
WSep 13 · 19:10R. Sedlacek1.536980D. Jr2.381111113LSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113WSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik1.53131111882D. Jr2.38154411113WSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes2.0091113782D. Jr1.731131111113LSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163LSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102WSep 12 · 12:10A. Kanak2.0078100D. Jr1.731111123WSep 12 · 11:10D. Jr2.00711115113J. Pribyl1.7311981162LSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760
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