TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145232
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Molin
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315116911117611
Karel Baros
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 100 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Tomas Molin at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 7–4 Karel Baros Karel Baros has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Molin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1499 vs Baros 1510
Baros
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 20% vs Baros 40%
Baros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 30% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin -3 · Baros -1
Molin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Baros) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 2.38 / Baros 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Baros)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13145232
Molin2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Baros1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 57 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it78% 39 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolin7wins
AwayBaros3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolin66.7%4 of 6
AwayBaros25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin6Baros4n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S2Molin5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S3Molin6Baros4n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S4Molin4Baros4n = 8split evenly
S5Molin3Baros1n = 4Molin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolinBarosM − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.638.2+3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 284 vs 147 / 27051.8%54.4%147 / 284 vs 147 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosMolin 2.38/Baros 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.4%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 15:15T. Molin228770K. Baros331111113
WAug 19 · 15:45T. Molin49137117113K. Baros49111191172
WJul 15 · 16:50T. Molin49111188113K. Baros3462111142
WJul 15 · 15:10T. Molin43101111113K. Baros38129891
LJul 2 · 15:45T. Molin391183171K. Baros4431111193
WJun 23 · 15:15T. Molin46711116113K. Baros3711331192
WFeb 20 · 19:45T. Molin4381113113K. Baros381181181
WFeb 14 · 07:45T. Molin331111113K. Baros259790
WFeb 6 · 19:15T. Molin46121211113K. Baros381014771
LDec 21 · 14:45T. Molin46111061182K. Baros46612116113
T. Molin10
LSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070LSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780LSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870LSep 7 · 21:10A. Kanak1.6781311153T. Molin2.1011114131WSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990LSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak1.9191115113T. Molin1.801181361LSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113
K. Baros10
LSep 17 · 17:15M. Moravec1.5011119113K. Baros2.50981151LSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160LSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661LSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113
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