TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145259
Played Sep 17Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117118––––
Tomas Molin
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Molin at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 3–1 Tomas Molin Tomas Molin has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Cizek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1493 vs Molin 1513
Molin
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Molin 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Molin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -2 · Molin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Molin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.80 / Molin 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Molin)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13145259
Cizek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Molin1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayMolin1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderCizek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Molin2n = 4split evenly
S2Cizek2Molin2n = 4split evenly
S3Cizek3Molin1n = 4Cizek took 3 of 4
S4Cizek3Molin1n = 4Cizek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCizekMolinC − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.539.2+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 475 vs 147 / 28347.4%51.9%225 / 475 vs 147 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinCizek 1.80/Molin 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek4412119123T. Molin3810711101
WFeb 4 · 18:40A. Cizek4111811113T. Molin28811541
LJan 9 · 22:25A. Cizek4489111152T. Molin48111196113
WJan 9 · 19:40A. Cizek49811118113T. Molin4311681172
A. Cizek10
LSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133LSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 16 · 20:38D. Stusek1.574111116113A. Cizek2.2511781832WSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123LSep 16 · 19:15A. Cizek2.20136112102A. Kanak1.611111811123LSep 16 · 17:45D. Stusek1.61381111113A. Cizek2.2011119392LSep 8 · 20:45A. Cizek1.9111117492J. Lisztwan1.80581111113LSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970WSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372LSep 8 · 17:45D. Skulina1.40114119113A. Cizek2.7571161192
T. Molin10
LSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870LSep 7 · 21:10A. Kanak1.6781311153T. Molin2.1011114131WSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990LSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak1.9191115113T. Molin1.801181361LSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113
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