TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145280
Played Sep 17Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111188111113––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:34 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 78 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Michal Moravec at 68.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 5–11 Michal Moravec Ales Cizek has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:34What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Moravec
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1507 vs Moravec 1605
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Moravec 100%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Moravec 90%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Moravec +5
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.50 / Moravec 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Moravec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13145280
Cizek2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Moravec1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 45 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 32 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayMoravec7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoravec75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Moravec8n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S2Cizek3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Cizek1Moravec9n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S4Cizek4Moravec2n = 6Cizek took 4 of 6
S5Cizek3Moravec1n = 4Cizek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekMoravecC − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.839.2−4.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 476 vs 191 / 37947.5%50.4%226 / 476 vs 191 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecCizek 2.50/Moravec 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek179710M. Moravec331111113
WAug 24 · 20:43A. Cizek45511711113M. Moravec3511511352
LAug 24 · 20:15A. Cizek321081131M. Moravec4112117113
WAug 12 · 19:15A. Cizek517111111113M. Moravec4511513972
WJul 20 · 16:10A. Cizek5811111114113M. Moravec53813131272
LJul 17 · 16:49A. Cizek229850M. Moravec331111113
LJul 17 · 14:15A. Cizek47711101182M. Moravec43111128113
LJun 5 · 16:10A. Cizek2779110M. Moravec351111133
LMay 16 · 21:08A. Cizek30117841M. Moravec4071111113
LMay 16 · 19:40A. Cizek1910540M. Moravec341211113
A. Cizek10
WSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070WSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780LSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 16 · 20:38D. Stusek1.574111116113A. Cizek2.2511781832WSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123LSep 16 · 19:15A. Cizek2.20136112102A. Kanak1.611111811123LSep 16 · 17:45D. Stusek1.61381111113A. Cizek2.2011119392LSep 8 · 20:45A. Cizek1.9111117492J. Lisztwan1.80581111113LSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970WSep 8 · 19:15A. Cizek2.381141111113J. Lisztwan1.5371151372
M. Moravec10
WSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870WSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec1.831111133L. Dzida1.8399110WSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113
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