TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137454
Played Sep 16Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1416911611––––
Michal Moravec
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 67 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 3–4 Michal Moravec Dominik Pawlik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1636 vs Moravec 1535
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +3 · Moravec +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.83 / Moravec 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13137454
Pawlik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Moravec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePawlik3wins
AwayMoravec4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMoravec leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik66.7%2 of 3
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik3Moravec4n = 7Moravec took 4 of 7
S2Pawlik3Moravec4n = 7Moravec took 4 of 7
S3Pawlik2Moravec5n = 7Moravec took 5 of 7
S4Pawlik3Moravec3n = 6split evenly
S5Pawlik2Moravec1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPawlikMoravecP − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match41.343.9−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 468 vs 186 / 37450.6%49.7%237 / 468 vs 186 / 374Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.83/Moravec 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LMay 6 · 10:40D. Pawlik381161291M. Moravec4591114113
WApr 27 · 10:40D. Pawlik56117916133M. Moravec536111114112
LApr 6 · 16:40D. Pawlik158070M. Moravec331111113
LApr 6 · 15:10D. Pawlik50111171472M. Moravec521351112113
WFeb 20 · 12:15D. Pawlik4491311113M. Moravec341111751
WFeb 17 · 12:15D. Pawlik511110118113M. Moravec4991281192
LDec 4 · 14:40D. Pawlik35911691M. Moravec4111811113
D. Pawlik10
WSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171WSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota1.839111181D. Pawlik1.8311133113WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113
M. Moravec10
WSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100
Upcoming Matches
D. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
M. Moravec
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