TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128343
Played Sep 14Finished
Laurent Lasota
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113113811––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLaurent Lasota above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Laurent Lasota 3–5 Dominik Pawlik Laurent Lasota has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Lasota beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lasota 1530 vs Pawlik 1627
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lasota 60% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lasota 50% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lasota -1 · Pawlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLasota 1.83 / Pawlik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13128343
Lasota1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Pawlik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLasota3wins
AwayPawlik5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderPawlik leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLasotan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lasota2Pawlik6n = 8Pawlik took 6 of 8
S2Lasota1Pawlik7n = 8Pawlik took 7 of 8
S3Lasota7Pawlik1n = 8Lasota took 7 of 8
S4Lasota3Pawlik4n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S5Lasota2Pawlik2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLasotaPawlikL − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match40.944.6−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLasotaPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 290 vs 236 / 46749.7%50.5%144 / 290 vs 236 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikLasota 1.83/Pawlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota399111181D. Pawlik3811133113
WSep 14 · 06:45L. Lasota46114119113D. Pawlik4681181182
LSep 9 · 08:10L. Lasota324101441D. Pawlik46111212113
WSep 7 · 06:10L. Lasota4616811113D. Pawlik371411391
WJun 21 · 11:45L. Lasota531111119113D. Pawlik5013991182
LMar 21 · 09:55L. Lasota4039111162D. Pawlik47111177113
LMar 21 · 06:45L. Lasota52611181162D. Pawlik601113169113
LMar 14 · 08:40L. Lasota196490D. Pawlik331111113
L. Lasota10
LSep 14 · 08:15L. Lasota2.005990L. Dzida1.731111113WSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 06:15R. Sedlacek2.5011711113L. Lasota1.50311851WSep 10 · 17:10D. Branny1.61751191L. Lasota2.2011119113WSep 10 · 15:40L. Lasota1.7391111113R. Solle2.00116851LSep 10 · 14:40L. Lasota1.57711101292J. Przybyla2.251151210113LSep 10 · 13:40L. Lasota1.731194171D. Branny2.0071111193WSep 9 · 08:48L. Lasota1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.006830LSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441WSep 9 · 07:10L. Lasota2.0011119113R. Sedlacek1.73691181
D. Pawlik10
WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441
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