TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126399
Played Sep 14Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115911711––
Lukas Dzida
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 63.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 5–1 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Pawlik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1635 vs Dzida 1526
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Dzida 80%
Dzida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 80% vs Dzida 50%
Pawlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +2 · Dzida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.73 / Dzida 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13126399
Pawlik1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 58 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 47 of 59
Dzida2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 31 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back36% 10 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayDzida1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderPawlik leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayDzidan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Dzida2n = 6Pawlik took 4 of 6
S2Pawlik4Dzida2n = 6Pawlik took 4 of 6
S3Pawlik3Dzida3n = 6split evenly
S4Pawlik4Dzida1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S5Pawlik2Dzida1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPawlikDzidaP − DBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match44.340.2+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 463 vs 106 / 19750.5%53.8%234 / 463 vs 106 / 197Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.73/Dzida 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.1%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 3 · 05:40D. Pawlik43111110113L. Dzida36891271
WAug 28 · 08:53D. Pawlik511012116123L. Dzida481210511102
LAug 28 · 06:15D. Pawlik4348111192L. Dzida47111177113
WAug 21 · 07:15D. Pawlik49117812113L. Dzida46511111092
WAug 17 · 11:10D. Pawlik45111112113L. Dzida36971461
WJul 6 · 09:40D. Pawlik351113113L. Dzida2881190
D. Pawlik10
WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441
L. Dzida10
WSep 12 · 13:10T. Lysek1.8813911962L. Dzida1.821111711113LSep 12 · 11:45L. Dzida1.73115981T. Lysek2.0071111113WSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870WSep 12 · 09:45L. Dzida1.44771111123V. Reska2.63111159102WSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190LSep 10 · 10:10R. Solle1.73111111113L. Dzida2.00991391WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882
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