TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116632
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7117111151191210
Vladislav Reska
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 94 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 4–2 Vladislav Reska Vladislav Reska has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Dzida
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1513 vs Reska 1520
Reska
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Reska 60%
Reska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 50% vs Reska 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +1 · Reska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.44 / Reska 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Dzida)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13116632
Dzida1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 42 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 27 of 42
Reska2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDzida4wins
AwayReska2wins
Dzida leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzidan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayReska50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida2Reska4n = 6Reska took 4 of 6
S2Dzida3Reska3n = 6split evenly
S3Dzida4Reska2n = 6Dzida took 4 of 6
S4Dzida3Reska0n = 3Dzida took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDzidaReskaD − RBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match34.230.2+4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 193 vs 248 / 48853.4%50.8%103 / 193 vs 248 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.44/Reska 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 14 · 17:10L. Dzida—91211113V. Reska—1110711
WAug 14 · 13:40L. Dzida—11311113V. Reska—511271
LJul 31 · 14:45L. Dzida—6770V. Reska—1111113
WJul 29 · 13:08L. Dzida—81111113V. Reska—116971
WJul 29 · 10:10L. Dzida—1111113V. Reska—7860
LJul 9 · 15:15L. Dzida—16880V. Reska—1811113
L. Dzida10
WSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870WSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190LSep 10 · 10:10R. Solle1.73111111113L. Dzida2.00991391WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592
V. Reska10
WSep 10 · 21:15F. Theodor1.636880V. Reska2.051111113LSep 10 · 19:40V. Reska1.73105111162F. Theodor2.00121177113WSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191WSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180LSep 7 · 16:49V. Reska1.536940D. Osvald2.381111113WSep 7 · 15:45D. Osvald1.73111080V. Reska2.001312113WSep 7 · 15:15K. Zeman2.0011316572V. Reska1.737111411113LSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.