TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117685
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118117––––
Jakub Volny
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Jakub Volny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 2–0 Jakub Volny Jakub Volny has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 23:43What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1524 vs Volny 1538
Volny
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Volny 60%
Volny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 50% vs Volny 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +2 · Volny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.61 / Volny 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Dzida)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13117685
Dzida1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 42 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 27 of 42
Volny2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 47 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDzida2wins
AwayVolny0wins
Dzida leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDzidaVolnyD − VBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.029.5+9.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 194 vs 171 / 35353.6%48.4%104 / 194 vs 171 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolnyDzida 1.61/Volny 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 28 · 15:15L. Dzida—1111113J. Volny—9580
WJul 18 · 13:45L. Dzida—111012123J. Volny—51210101
L. Dzida10
WSep 12 · 09:45L. Dzida1.44771111123V. Reska2.63111159102WSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190LSep 10 · 10:10R. Solle1.73111111113L. Dzida2.00991391WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592
J. Volny10
LSep 12 · 10:15T. Lysek1.9116912113J. Volny1.8014111091WSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572WSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113LSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123WSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981WSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381LSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113
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