TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117843
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Lysek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
16149111210119––
Jakub Volny
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Volny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Lysek above · Jakub Volny below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 92 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Volny at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Lysek 5–5 Jakub Volny Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Volny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1500 vs Volny 1551
Volny
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 20% vs Volny 80%
Volny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 40% vs Volny 70%
Volny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -4 · Volny +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Volny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.91 / Volny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Volny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13117843
Lysek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 20 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Volny1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 49 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysek5wins
AwayVolny5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek66.7%4 of 6
AwayVolny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek6Volny4n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S2Lysek6Volny4n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S3Lysek4Volny6n = 10Volny took 6 of 10
S4Lysek3Volny6n = 9Volny took 6 of 9
S5Lysek4Volny3n = 7Lysek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysekVolnyL − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.443.5+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 233 vs 171 / 35252.8%48.6%123 / 233 vs 171 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolnyLysek 1.91/Volny 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Volny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 16:15T. Lysek—911951J. Volny—1171163
WJul 6 · 17:40T. Lysek—117711113J. Volny—71111862
LApr 3 · 09:20T. Lysek—981111122J. Volny—111177143
WApr 3 · 08:15T. Lysek—118117113J. Volny—81171162
WMar 1 · 14:10T. Lysek—7111110143J. Volny—117912122
LFeb 21 · 21:45T. Lysek—814881J. Volny—111211113
WFeb 21 · 20:15T. Lysek—111189113J. Volny—38111162
LJan 30 · 07:10T. Lysek—196611102J. Volny—1711115123
LJan 25 · 18:15T. Lysek—11118872J. Volny—481111113
WJan 25 · 17:10T. Lysek—1411113J. Volny—12970
T. Lysek10
LSep 12 · 08:39V. Konvicka1.6712111110113T. Lysek2.1014881292LSep 12 · 08:15T. Lysek1.839540V. Konvicka1.831111113LSep 12 · 06:45A. Kanak1.67871111113T. Lysek2.1011117582LSep 12 · 06:15L. Kantor1.911111203T. Lysek1.8059180WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981
J. Volny10
LSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870WSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572WSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113LSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123WSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981WSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381LSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113
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