TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116790
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Kantor
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151192018––––
Tomas Lysek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Lysek to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Kantor above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 20-18
Point 74 set 3, 20-18 — our read held Tomas Lysek at 63.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kantor 4–4 Tomas Lysek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lysek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kantor 1484 vs Lysek 1527
Lysek
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kantor 20% vs Lysek 80%
Lysek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kantor 30% vs Lysek 60%
Lysek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kantor +1 · Lysek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kantor) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKantor 1.91 / Lysek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kantor)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13116790
Kantor1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Lysek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 43 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKantor4wins
AwayLysek4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKantor100%3 of 3
AwayLysek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kantor3Lysek5n = 8Lysek took 5 of 8
S2Kantor7Lysek1n = 8Kantor took 7 of 8
S3Kantor2Lysek6n = 8Lysek took 6 of 8
S4Kantor3Lysek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKantorLysekK − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.138.9−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKantorLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 349 vs 123 / 23149.9%53.3%174 / 349 vs 123 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KantorKantor 1.91/Lysek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kantor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kantor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 12 · 06:15L. Kantor—1111203T. Lysek—59180
LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor—91161162T. Lysek—118118113
WSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor—11117123T. Lysek—7611101
LJul 29 · 08:38L. Kantor—911771T. Lysek—11711113
LJul 29 · 08:10L. Kantor—91060T. Lysek—1112113
WJul 28 · 08:15L. Kantor—13113113T. Lysek—1181181
LJul 23 · 13:18L. Kantor—10111341T. Lysek—12615113
WJul 23 · 11:40L. Kantor—811113113T. Lysek—11951142
L. Kantor10
LSep 12 · 07:45A. Kanak1.611111113L. Kantor2.204860WSep 12 · 07:15V. Konvicka1.91121111992L. Kantor1.801013711113WSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.3611117113L. Kantor3.00771171LSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113LSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113WSep 5 · 15:45L. Kantor2.20151181133A. Kanak1.611381111112LSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113WSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101
T. Lysek10
LSep 12 · 06:45A. Kanak1.67871111113T. Lysek2.1011117582WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113
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