TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118130
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511911811––
Tomas Lysek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 1–0 Tomas Lysek Tomas Lysek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1548 vs Lysek 1512
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 60% vs Lysek 20%
Dzida
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 60% vs Lysek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +3 · Lysek +1
Dzida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.73 / Lysek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Dzida)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13118130
Dzida1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 42 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 27 of 42
Lysek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 20 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDzida1wins
AwayLysek0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderDzida leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDzidaLysekD − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.047.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 195 vs 124 / 23453.9%53%105 / 195 vs 124 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.73/Lysek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 13 · 11:15L. Dzida—711118113T. Lysek—11891182
L. Dzida10
WSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870WSep 12 · 09:45L. Dzida1.44771111123V. Reska2.63111159102WSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190LSep 10 · 10:10R. Solle1.73111111113L. Dzida2.00991391WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112
T. Lysek10
WSep 12 · 11:15V. Reska1.8311611872T. Lysek1.83711611113WSep 12 · 10:15T. Lysek1.9116912113J. Volny1.8014111091LSep 12 · 08:39V. Konvicka1.6712111110113T. Lysek2.1014881292LSep 12 · 08:15T. Lysek1.839540V. Konvicka1.831111113LSep 12 · 06:45A. Kanak1.67871111113T. Lysek2.1011117582LSep 12 · 06:15L. Kantor1.911111203T. Lysek1.8059180WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113
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