TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117698
Played Sep 12Finished
Vladislav Reska
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117611116811711
Tomas Lysek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladislav Reska above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vladislav Reska 10–10 Tomas Lysek Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:53What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lysek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reska 1508 vs Lysek 1513
Lysek
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reska 60% vs Lysek 20%
Reska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reska 60% vs Lysek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reska -1 · Lysek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Reska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReska 1.83 / Lysek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Reska)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13117698
Reska1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Lysek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReska5wins
AwayLysek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReska83.3%5 of 6
AwayLysek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reska6Lysek4n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S2Reska8Lysek2n = 10Reska took 8 of 10
S3Reska4Lysek6n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S4Reska1Lysek5n = 6Lysek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReskaLysekR − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.2+0.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReskaLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 489 vs 124 / 23450.7%53%248 / 489 vs 124 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaReska 1.83/Lysek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 14:45V. Reska—812991T. Lysek—111011113
WJul 19 · 14:15V. Reska—1111113T. Lysek—9890
LJul 2 · 21:15V. Reska—5760T. Lysek—1111113
WJul 2 · 18:15V. Reska—1111113T. Lysek—5880
LJun 28 · 10:15V. Reska—671191T. Lysek—11112113
LJun 13 · 05:45V. Reska—11119872T. Lysek—691111113
WMay 23 · 18:15V. Reska—14115113T. Lysek—1261181
LMay 16 · 20:40V. Reska—8111041T. Lysek—11912113
WMay 16 · 20:10V. Reska—1111113T. Lysek—6770
WMar 29 · 14:40V. Reska—121175113T. Lysek—107111172
V. Reska10
LSep 12 · 09:45L. Dzida1.44771111123V. Reska2.63111159102WSep 10 · 21:15F. Theodor1.636880V. Reska2.051111113LSep 10 · 19:40V. Reska1.73105111162F. Theodor2.00121177113WSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191WSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180LSep 7 · 16:49V. Reska1.536940D. Osvald2.381111113WSep 7 · 15:45D. Osvald1.73111080V. Reska2.001312113WSep 7 · 15:15K. Zeman2.0011316572V. Reska1.737111411113LSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121
T. Lysek10
WSep 12 · 11:45L. Dzida1.73115981T. Lysek2.0071111113WSep 12 · 10:15T. Lysek1.9116912113J. Volny1.8014111091LSep 12 · 08:39V. Konvicka1.6712111110113T. Lysek2.1014881292LSep 12 · 08:15T. Lysek1.839540V. Konvicka1.831111113LSep 12 · 06:45A. Kanak1.67871111113T. Lysek2.1011117582LSep 12 · 06:15L. Kantor1.911111203T. Lysek1.8059180WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113
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