TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127032
Played Sep 14Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117117––––
Radek Sedlacek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:46 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 57.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 8–4 Radek Sedlacek Radek Sedlacek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:46What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1607 vs Sedlacek 1522
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Sedlacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Sedlacek 40%
Pawlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -2 · Sedlacek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.73 / Sedlacek 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13127032
Pawlik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 58 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 47 of 59
Sedlacek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 29 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik7wins
AwaySedlacek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik75%6 of 8
AwaySedlacekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik8Sedlacek2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S2Pawlik5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik8Sedlacek2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S4Pawlik3Sedlacek4n = 7Sedlacek took 4 of 7
S5Pawlik2Sedlacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikSedlacekP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.935.5+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 465 vs 141 / 30850.3%45.8%234 / 465 vs 141 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.73/Sedlacek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 06:10D. Pawlik4311119123R. Sedlacek358611101
LJul 27 · 09:10D. Pawlik50109111192R. Sedlacek48121168113
WJul 27 · 05:40D. Pawlik331111113R. Sedlacek208480
LJun 3 · 09:45D. Pawlik3511411542R. Sedlacek41611211113
WMay 25 · 14:40D. Pawlik4011711113R. Sedlacek34711791
WMay 20 · 09:20D. Pawlik341211113R. Sedlacek2210570
WMay 20 · 06:15D. Pawlik521110114163R. Sedlacek44512211142
WMay 6 · 12:40D. Pawlik40411113113R. Sedlacek4211941172
LMay 6 · 11:40D. Pawlik3811107101R. Sedlacek4381211123
WMar 23 · 18:20D. Pawlik341111123R. Sedlacek2697100
D. Pawlik10
LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113
R. Sedlacek10
WSep 14 · 07:15L. Dzida1.8356100R. Sedlacek1.831111123WSep 14 · 06:15R. Sedlacek2.5011711113L. Lasota1.50311851LSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162LSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 19:10R. Sedlacek1.536980D. Jr2.381111113LSep 13 · 17:40M. Macurak1.611111113R. Sedlacek2.203340LSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.3611117113L. Kantor3.00771171WSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133LSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892
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