TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127034
Played Sep 14Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811114811119811
Laurent Lasota
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 4–2 Laurent Lasota Laurent Lasota has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Pawlik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1620 vs Lasota 1541
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Lasota 40%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 70% vs Lasota 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Lasota -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.80 / Lasota 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13127034
Pawlik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 58 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 47 of 59
Lasota1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 44 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePawlik4wins
AwayLasota2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderPawlik leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik80%4 of 5
AwayLasotan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik5Lasota1n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6
S2Pawlik5Lasota1n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6
S3Pawlik1Lasota5n = 6Lasota took 5 of 6
S4Pawlik2Lasota3n = 5Lasota took 3 of 5
S5Pawlik2Lasota1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPawlikLasotaP − LBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match45.540.3+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 464 vs 143 / 28750.4%49.8%234 / 464 vs 143 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.80/Lasota 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lasota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik46111212113L. Lasota324101441
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik371411391L. Lasota4616811113
LJun 21 · 11:45D. Pawlik5013991182L. Lasota531111119113
WMar 21 · 09:55D. Pawlik47111177113L. Lasota4039111162
WMar 21 · 06:45D. Pawlik601113169113L. Lasota52611181162
WMar 14 · 08:40D. Pawlik331111113L. Lasota196490
D. Pawlik10
WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113
L. Lasota10
LSep 14 · 06:15R. Sedlacek2.5011711113L. Lasota1.50311851WSep 10 · 17:10D. Branny1.61751191L. Lasota2.2011119113WSep 10 · 15:40L. Lasota1.7391111113R. Solle2.00116851LSep 10 · 14:40L. Lasota1.57711101292J. Przybyla2.251151210113LSep 10 · 13:40L. Lasota1.731194171D. Branny2.0071111193WSep 9 · 08:48L. Lasota1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.006830LSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441WSep 9 · 07:10L. Lasota2.0011119113R. Sedlacek1.73691181WSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123WSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190
Upcoming Matches
D. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
L. Lasota
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