TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13136713
Played Sep 16Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119811117––
Lukas Dzida
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 56.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 5–2 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1627 vs Dzida 1552
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Dzida 80%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Dzida 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +2 · Dzida +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.61 / Dzida 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Pawlik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13136713
Pawlik1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 59 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it80% 48 of 60
Dzida2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog58% won 33 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back38% 11 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayDzida2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderPawlik leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayDzida66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Dzida3n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S2Pawlik5Dzida2n = 7Pawlik took 5 of 7
S3Pawlik3Dzida4n = 7Dzida took 4 of 7
S4Pawlik4Dzida2n = 6Pawlik took 4 of 6
S5Pawlik2Dzida1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricPawlikDzidaP − DBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match43.039.9+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 467 vs 109 / 20150.5%54.2%236 / 467 vs 109 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.61/Dzida 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik35811971L. Dzida3811511113
WSep 3 · 05:40D. Pawlik43111110113L. Dzida36891271
WAug 28 · 08:53D. Pawlik511012116123L. Dzida481210511102
LAug 28 · 06:15D. Pawlik4348111192L. Dzida47111177113
WAug 21 · 07:15D. Pawlik49117812113L. Dzida46511111092
WAug 17 · 11:10D. Pawlik45111112113L. Dzida36971461
WJul 6 · 09:40D. Pawlik351113113L. Dzida2881190
D. Pawlik10
LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota1.839111181D. Pawlik1.8311133113WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113
L. Dzida10
WSep 14 · 09:15R. Sedlacek1.61116391L. Dzida2.2071111113WSep 14 · 08:15L. Lasota2.005990L. Dzida1.731111113LSep 14 · 07:15L. Dzida1.8356100R. Sedlacek1.831111123WSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 12 · 13:10T. Lysek1.8813911962L. Dzida1.821111711113LSep 12 · 11:45L. Dzida1.73115981T. Lysek2.0071111113WSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870WSep 12 · 09:45L. Dzida1.44771111123V. Reska2.63111159102WSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113
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