TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128342
Played Sep 14Finished
Radek Sedlacek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611311911––
Lukas Dzida
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Sedlacek above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 56.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Radek Sedlacek 3–1 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sedlacek beat Dzida 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sedlacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Sedlacek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1512 vs Dzida 1541
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 40% vs Dzida 60%
Dzida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 40% vs Dzida 60%
Dzida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek -1 · Dzida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sedlacek) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 1.61 / Dzida 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Sedlacek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13128342
Sedlacek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 36 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Dzida2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 31 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back36% 10 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSedlacek3wins
AwayDzida1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSedlacek leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacek100%3 of 3
AwayDzidan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek3Dzida1n = 4Sedlacek took 3 of 4
S2Sedlacek2Dzida2n = 4split evenly
S3Sedlacek2Dzida2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSedlacekDzidaS − DBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match34.530.2+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 309 vs 108 / 20045.6%54%141 / 309 vs 108 / 200Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekSedlacek 1.61/Dzida 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 14 · 07:15R. Sedlacek341111123L. Dzida2156100
LAug 24 · 16:48R. Sedlacek237970L. Dzida331111113
WAug 24 · 14:45R. Sedlacek47115811123L. Dzida42411116102
WAug 10 · 06:15R. Sedlacek341112113L. Dzida2561090
R. Sedlacek10
LSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770WSep 14 · 07:15L. Dzida1.8356100R. Sedlacek1.831111123WSep 14 · 06:15R. Sedlacek2.5011711113L. Lasota1.50311851LSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162LSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 19:10R. Sedlacek1.536980D. Jr2.381111113LSep 13 · 17:40M. Macurak1.611111113R. Sedlacek2.203340LSep 9 · 13:10J. Skvrna1.7312411213R. Sedlacek2.0010117191WSep 9 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.3611117113L. Kantor3.00771171WSep 9 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.61111196112R. Sedlacek2.20941111133
L. Dzida10
WSep 14 · 08:15L. Lasota2.005990L. Dzida1.731111113LSep 14 · 07:15L. Dzida1.8356100R. Sedlacek1.831111123WSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 12 · 13:10T. Lysek1.8813911962L. Dzida1.821111711113LSep 12 · 11:45L. Dzida1.73115981T. Lysek2.0071111113WSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870WSep 12 · 09:45L. Dzida1.44771111123V. Reska2.63111159102WSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190
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