TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13136905
Played Sep 16Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911117911––
Michal Moravec
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kindl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Kindl at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 3–2 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kindl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1605 vs Moravec 1520
Kindl
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 60% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 60% vs Moravec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl +1 · Moravec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kindl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.57 / Moravec 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kindl)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13136905
Kindl1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 40 of 54
Moravec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back28% 15 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKindl3wins
AwayMoravec2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKindl leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl75%3 of 4
AwayMoravecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl4Moravec1n = 5Kindl took 4 of 5
S2Kindl4Moravec1n = 5Kindl took 4 of 5
S3Kindl2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
S4Kindl1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKindlMoravecK − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.636.8+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 418 vs 185 / 37351.2%49.6%214 / 418 vs 185 / 373Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KindlKindl 1.57/Moravec 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Kindl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 1 · 12:10T. Kindl331111113M. Moravec237880
WAug 3 · 11:45T. Kindl331111113M. Moravec226790
LApr 23 · 11:10T. Kindl381288101M. Moravec44101111123
WMar 3 · 10:05T. Kindl531111713113M. Moravec4758111582
LMar 3 · 07:10T. Kindl4151191332M. Moravec481141111113
T. Kindl10
LSep 16 · 11:10L. Dzida1.9111611113T. Kindl1.80711831WSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193LSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112WSep 16 · 06:10L. Slavik1.83911119102T. Kindl1.83118911123WSep 14 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.67134781T. Kindl2.10111111113WSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110LSep 14 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.801111113T. Kindl1.917470LSep 14 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67111111113T. Kindl2.10313681WSep 10 · 13:15T. Kindl1.44113119173R. Solle2.63411611152
M. Moravec10
WSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100
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