TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137453
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012116115811111
Tomas Kindl
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 86 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Michal Macurak at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 11–7 Tomas Kindl Tomas Kindl has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kindl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Macurak
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1695 vs Kindl 1608
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 60% vs Kindl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Kindl 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +2 · Kindl +3
Kindl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.83 / Kindl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Macurak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13137453
Macurak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kindl1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak6wins
AwayKindl4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak57.1%4 of 7
AwayKindl33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak7Kindl3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S2Macurak6Kindl4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S3Macurak7Kindl3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S4Macurak1Kindl5n = 6Kindl took 5 of 6
S5Macurak3Kindl3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKindlM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.3+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 490 vs 213 / 41651.2%51.2%251 / 490 vs 213 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.341.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.83/Kindl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak511011118113T. Kindl3512651112
WAug 11 · 19:10M. Macurak341111123T. Kindl1945100
WAug 3 · 13:15M. Macurak331111113T. Kindl249960
LAug 3 · 09:45M. Macurak50117121192T. Kindl54911149113
WJul 14 · 21:05M. Macurak331111113T. Kindl207670
LJul 14 · 20:10M. Macurak2385100T. Kindl341111123
WJun 26 · 12:15M. Macurak541191112113T. Kindl4961191492
WJun 25 · 19:10M. Macurak41711111113T. Kindl4711791192
LApr 28 · 06:40M. Macurak43111110742T. Kindl43721211113
LApr 24 · 17:40M. Macurak501110111082T. Kindl48812512113
M. Macurak10
WSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860WSep 15 · 16:45M. Macurak1.671111113B. Mrowetz2.107690LSep 15 · 15:45B. Moravec1.5071311113M. Macurak2.501111551LSep 15 · 15:15D. Skulina1.831611113M. Macurak1.8314490WSep 15 · 14:15M. Macurak1.7311118113B. Mrowetz2.00691191WSep 15 · 12:53M. Macurak1.7391111113D. Jr2.00119971LSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak1.5771111992J. Krupnik2.25115411113WSep 15 · 10:40M. Macurak1.73121111123D. Jr2.001458101LSep 15 · 09:40M. Macurak1.40811101122L. Kantor2.75116127113WSep 13 · 21:14M. Macurak1.8311136113D. Jr1.835111181
T. Kindl10
WSep 16 · 06:10L. Slavik1.83911119102T. Kindl1.83118911123WSep 14 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.67134781T. Kindl2.10111111113WSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110LSep 14 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.801111113T. Kindl1.917470LSep 14 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67111111113T. Kindl2.10313681WSep 10 · 13:15T. Kindl1.44113119173R. Solle2.63411611152WSep 10 · 11:40T. Kindl1.731311113R. Solle2.0011560WSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190WSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 8 · 12:35T. Kindl1.67791351D. Jr2.10111111113
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