TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134389
Played Sep 15Finished
David Skulina
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614114119––––
Michal Macurak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Skulina above · Michal Macurak below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 65 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Michal Macurak at 60.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H David Skulina 2–1 Michal Macurak Michal Macurak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Macurak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skulina 1603 vs Macurak 1678
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skulina 20% vs Macurak 60%
Macurak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skulina 40% vs Macurak 70%
Macurak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skulina -3 · Macurak +2
Skulina
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skulina form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkulina 1.83 / Macurak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Macurak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13134389
Skulina1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Macurak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkulina2wins
AwayMacurak1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSkulina leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skulina2Macurak1n = 3Skulina took 2 of 3
S2Skulina3Macurak0n = 3Skulina took 3 of 3
S3Skulina2Macurak1n = 3Skulina took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkulinaMacurakS − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.731.3+8.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkulinaMacurakBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 162 vs 248 / 48550.6%51.1%82 / 162 vs 248 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakSkulina 1.83/Macurak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skulina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina4411119492M. Macurak47771111113
WJul 6 · 18:45D. Skulina4291111113M. Macurak29117291
WMar 30 · 09:40D. Skulina331111113M. Macurak185670
D. Skulina10
WSep 15 · 16:15B. Mrowetz1.6112590D. Skulina2.201411113LSep 15 · 13:45B. Moravec1.571111113D. Skulina2.257680LSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110LSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113WSep 12 · 14:40D. Skulina1.6712141111113I. Heuman2.1014169932LSep 12 · 13:40D. Skulina1.618137101E. Precek2.20111111123WSep 11 · 21:19F. Chaloupka1.678980D. Skulina2.101111113LSep 11 · 19:45D. Skulina2.3811771412F. Chaloupka1.537111112113WSep 11 · 18:45D. Skulina1.57111211113K. Kleprlik2.25814641WSep 11 · 17:45D. Skulina1.7311118113I. Heuman2.00591191
M. Macurak10
LSep 15 · 15:45B. Moravec1.5071311113M. Macurak2.501111551WSep 15 · 14:15M. Macurak1.7311118113B. Mrowetz2.00691191WSep 15 · 12:53M. Macurak1.7391111113D. Jr2.00119971LSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak1.5771111992J. Krupnik2.25115411113WSep 15 · 10:40M. Macurak1.73121111123D. Jr2.001458101LSep 15 · 09:40M. Macurak1.40811101122L. Kantor2.75116127113WSep 13 · 21:14M. Macurak1.8311136113D. Jr1.835111181LSep 13 · 19:40M. Macurak1.67101191182D. Jr2.10124116113WSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 13 · 17:40M. Macurak1.611111113R. Sedlacek2.203340
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