TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13140291
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Moravec
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11712101210––––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Michal Moravec at 57.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 5–3 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Moravec beat Pawlik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:41What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Moravec
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1567 vs Pawlik 1637
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Pawlik 80%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 80% vs Pawlik 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +5 · Pawlik +1
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.73 / Pawlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13140291
Moravec1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Pawlik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 52 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMoravec5wins
AwayPawlik3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMoravec leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec80%4 of 5
AwayPawlik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Pawlik3n = 8Moravec took 5 of 8
S2Moravec5Pawlik3n = 8Moravec took 5 of 8
S3Moravec6Pawlik2n = 8Moravec took 6 of 8
S4Moravec3Pawlik3n = 6split evenly
S5Moravec1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMoravecPawlikM − PBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.139.8+3.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 376 vs 238 / 47050%50.6%188 / 376 vs 238 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 16 · 10:40M. Moravec381611113D. Pawlik2914960
WMay 6 · 10:40M. Moravec4591114113D. Pawlik381161291
LApr 27 · 10:40M. Moravec536111114112D. Pawlik56117916133
WApr 6 · 16:40M. Moravec331111113D. Pawlik158070
WApr 6 · 15:10M. Moravec521351112113D. Pawlik50111171472
LFeb 20 · 12:15M. Moravec341111751D. Pawlik4491311113
LFeb 17 · 12:15M. Moravec4991281192D. Pawlik511110118113
WDec 4 · 14:40M. Moravec4111811113D. Pawlik35911691
M. Moravec10
WSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec1.831111133L. Dzida1.8399110WSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791WSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113
D. Pawlik10
WSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171WSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota1.839111181D. Pawlik1.8311133113WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113
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