TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137429
Played Sep 16Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214811117119119
Tomas Kindl
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 8–8 Tomas Kindl Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1618 vs Kindl 1578
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Kindl 20%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Kindl 40%
Pawlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Kindl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.73 / Kindl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13137429
Pawlik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 59 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it80% 48 of 60
Kindl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 48 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayKindl5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayKindl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Kindl6n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik4Kindl4n = 8split evenly
S5Pawlik2Kindl1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikKindlP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.30.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 469 vs 214 / 42050.5%51%237 / 469 vs 214 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.941.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KindlPawlik 1.73/Kindl 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:40D. Pawlik341111123T. Kindl1954100
LAug 21 · 08:43D. Pawlik34811961T. Kindl4011711113
LAug 21 · 07:45D. Pawlik419111291T. Kindl4511914113
WAug 19 · 08:48D. Pawlik517111111113T. Kindl4411413792
WAug 19 · 06:45D. Pawlik4611119153T. Kindl398711131
WAug 17 · 11:40D. Pawlik47119114123T. Kindl44811411102
LAug 6 · 12:45D. Pawlik4589121152T. Kindl471111104113
LAug 6 · 09:45D. Pawlik196490T. Kindl331111113
WAug 2 · 14:15D. Pawlik46111011143T. Kindl418129121
LJun 5 · 07:15D. Pawlik305411101T. Kindl4111117123
D. Pawlik10
LSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 09:40D. Pawlik1.6111118113L. Dzida2.20891171WSep 14 · 08:45L. Lasota1.839111181D. Pawlik1.8311133113WSep 14 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.005770LSep 14 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.8081181182L. Lasota1.91114119113LSep 14 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.73811971L. Dzida2.0011511113WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113
T. Kindl10
LSep 16 · 12:40L. Dzida1.83581111123T. Kindl1.83111189102LSep 16 · 11:10L. Dzida1.9111611113T. Kindl1.80711831LSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193LSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112WSep 16 · 06:10L. Slavik1.83911119102T. Kindl1.83118911123WSep 14 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.67134781T. Kindl2.10111111113WSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl1.911111133R. Benes1.8058110LSep 14 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.801111113T. Kindl1.917470
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