TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143537
Played Sep 17Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111012511––––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:12 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJachym Zacharda to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jachym Zacharda at 54.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 15–20 Jachym Zacharda Pavel Benes has won 15 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:12What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zacharda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-20 in 35
Zacharda
Correct
gap of 5 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1686 vs Zacharda 1673
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Zacharda 80%
Zacharda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Zacharda 70%
Zacharda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -3 · Zacharda +2
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zacharda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.00 / Zacharda 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zacharda)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13143537
Benes2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 49
Zacharda1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it67% 14 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayZacharda5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%4 of 4
AwayZacharda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S2Benes5Zacharda5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes6Zacharda4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes4Zacharda3n = 7Benes took 4 of 7
S5Benes2Zacharda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesZachardaB − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.3−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 562 vs 125 / 26547.5%47.2%267 / 562 vs 125 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZachardaBenes 2.00/Zacharda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Zacharda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes31511871J. Zacharda3611311113
WSep 2 · 10:55P. Benes361111143J. Zacharda2778120
LAug 25 · 11:25P. Benes345111081J. Zacharda4011612113
LAug 24 · 08:25P. Benes196850J. Zacharda331111113
WJul 28 · 06:55P. Benes47116117123J. Zacharda47611911102
WJul 15 · 13:59P. Benes45111011133J. Zacharda409128111
WJul 15 · 11:25P. Benes48871111113J. Zacharda4511119682
WDec 12 · 16:55P. Benes331111113J. Zacharda208840
LNov 6 · 10:25P. Benes441011101122J. Zacharda49125129113
LOct 24 · 17:45P. Benes4476111192J. Zacharda46111176113
P. Benes10
LSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530
J. Zacharda10
WSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113LSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781WSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113WSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101WSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113LSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330WSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101WSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120
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