TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143226
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311113611811––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Zacharda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 64 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jachym Zacharda at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 15–16 Jachym Zacharda Jan Kocab has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zacharda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1664 vs Zacharda 1661
Kocab
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 80% vs Zacharda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 50% vs Zacharda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +4 · Zacharda +1
Kocab
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zacharda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 1.83 / Zacharda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zacharda)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13143226
Kocab1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Zacharda1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab5wins
AwayZacharda5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab75%3 of 4
AwayZacharda66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S2Kocab7Zacharda3n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S3Kocab4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S4Kocab4Zacharda3n = 7Kocab took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabZachardaK − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.834.3+3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 264 vs 124 / 26447.7%47%126 / 264 vs 124 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZachardaKocab 1.83/Zacharda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zacharda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:20J. Kocab331111113J. Zacharda163850
WSep 7 · 11:55J. Kocab341112113J. Zacharda2171040
LAug 30 · 10:04J. Kocab3811107101J. Zacharda4491211123
WAug 30 · 06:55J. Kocab531211811113J. Zacharda3814411542
LAug 25 · 11:55J. Kocab33911671J. Zacharda4111811113
LAug 24 · 10:33J. Kocab236980J. Zacharda331111113
LAug 24 · 09:25J. Kocab341071161J. Zacharda4012116113
WAug 8 · 07:55J. Kocab4511119143J. Zacharda336411121
LAug 7 · 11:55J. Kocab4571181272J. Zacharda441111110113
WJul 15 · 12:25J. Kocab4071111113J. Zacharda33115981
J. Kocab10
WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380LSep 13 · 08:20J. Kocab1.80119931D. Hyza1.9191111113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113LSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab3.403101171D. Bochnak1.3011126113LSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113
J. Zacharda10
WSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113WSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113LSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781WSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113WSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101WSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113LSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330WSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101WSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120
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