TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115170
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
2.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611119811119711
Ondrej Kadavy
Away
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 60.6%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 2–9 Ondrej Kadavy Jan Kocab has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kocab beat Kadavy 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1607 vs Kadavy 1705
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 60% vs Kadavy 40%
Kocab
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 60% vs Kadavy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +3 · Kadavy -1
Kocab
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kadavy) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 2.60 / Kadavy 1.45
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kadavy)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13115170
Kocab2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 26 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Kadavy1.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 78 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it83% 55 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab2wins
AwayKadavy8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab25%1 of 4
AwayKadavy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab4Kadavy6n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S2Kocab3Kadavy7n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S3Kocab3Kadavy7n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S4Kocab3Kadavy4n = 7Kadavy took 4 of 7
S5Kocab2Kadavy4n = 6Kadavy took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabKadavyKocab − KadavyBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.041.6−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 267 vs 173 / 29248.7%59.3%130 / 267 vs 173 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKocab 2.60/Kadavy 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.2%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab—115811113O. Kadavy—51111492
WNov 9 · 15:25J. Kocab—111111063O. Kadavy—11291252
LNov 9 · 12:25J. Kocab—71271172O. Kadavy—1110117113
LOct 24 · 17:25J. Kocab—5840O. Kadavy—1111113
LJul 26 · 14:40J. Kocab—1191111122O. Kadavy—911113143
LJul 26 · 13:25J. Kocab—71251152O. Kadavy—1110118103
LMay 10 · 15:55J. Kocab—11411792O. Kadavy—611911113
LApr 22 · 14:55J. Kocab—8970O. Kadavy—1111113
LApr 13 · 15:40J. Kocab—1198121O. Kadavy—61111143
LApr 1 · 16:25J. Kocab—6990O. Kadavy—1111113
J. Kocab10
WSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153WSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab3.40115811113O. Kadavy1.3051111492LSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090LSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113WSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2.0011740J. Kocab1.731311113LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
O. Kadavy10
LSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113WSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113LSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab3.40115811113O. Kadavy1.3051111492LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.8381111113D. Bochnak1.83119791WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.7391111123D. Bochnak2.001189101LSep 1 · 15:55O. Kadavy2.25911101162D. Jicha1.57117127113
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