TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112446
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1196119111315––
Jan Kocab
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:43 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 85 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Martin Cerny at 79.4%
85 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 23–6 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 6 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-6 in 29
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 17 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1853 vs Kocab 1607
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 80% vs Kocab 60%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 90% vs Kocab 40%
Cerny
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Kocab +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.28 / Kocab 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Cerny)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13112446
Cerny1.28
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it86% 121 of 141
Kocab3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 26 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny8wins
AwayKocab2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny75%6 of 8
AwayKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny8Kocab2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Cerny7Kocab3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Cerny8Kocab2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Cerny3Kocab2n = 5Cerny took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyKocabC − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.030.5+7.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 835 vs 130 / 26757.3%48.7%478 / 835 vs 130 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.28/Kocab 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny—1169131J. Kocab—91111153
WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny—1112113J. Kocab—81090
WSep 7 · 13:25M. Cerny—1211113J. Kocab—10680
WAug 31 · 13:25M. Cerny—513812113J. Kocab—1111111092
WAug 30 · 07:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Kocab—5870
WAug 27 · 08:55M. Cerny—91111133J. Kocab—1139111
WAug 25 · 10:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Kocab—7670
WAug 23 · 12:20M. Cerny—11711113J. Kocab—311631
LAug 20 · 22:00M. Cerny—11911642J. Kocab—811511113
WAug 20 · 19:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Kocab—4360
M. Cerny10
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113WSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530WSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460
J. Kocab10
LSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113WSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113WSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab3.40115811113O. Kadavy1.3051111492LSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090LSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113WSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2.0011740J. Kocab1.731311113LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
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