TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115171
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161131412––––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 57 set 3, 14-12
57 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 16–14 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zacharda beat Cerny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.33 / Zacharda 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13115171
Cerny1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it86% 121 of 141
Zacharda3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 17 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny7wins
AwayZacharda3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%6 of 6
AwayZacharda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny6Zacharda4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Cerny6Zacharda4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny9Zacharda1n = 10Cerny took 9 of 10
S4Cerny2Zacharda2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyZachardaC − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.328.4+6.9per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 836 vs 120 / 25957.3%46.3%479 / 836 vs 120 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.33/Zacharda 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 10:20M. Cerny—881111102J. Zacharda—111196123
WSep 8 · 13:25M. Cerny—1211113J. Zacharda—10270
WSep 7 · 10:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Zacharda—5550
WSep 4 · 19:25M. Cerny—1111113J. Zacharda—5670
LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny—11101131J. Zacharda—13127113
WSep 2 · 12:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Zacharda—8260
WAug 30 · 09:25M. Cerny—12511113J. Zacharda—1011671
WAug 25 · 14:25M. Cerny—311129113J. Zacharda—115101152
WAug 25 · 13:25M. Cerny—1111113J. Zacharda—5640
LAug 12 · 07:55M. Cerny—7660J. Zacharda—1111113
M. Cerny10
WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113WSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530WSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460
J. Zacharda10
LSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113WSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102LSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113LSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111WSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 13:58J. Zacharda2.0021911392D. Vesecky1.731117211113WSep 7 · 12:55J. Zacharda2.631111113D. Vesecky1.449680LSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.