TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095314
Played Sep 8Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511113811711––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Zacharda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jachym Zacharda at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 15–19 Jachym Zacharda Pavel Benes has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zacharda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-19 in 34
Zacharda
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1776 vs Zacharda 1629
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Zacharda 20%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 70% vs Zacharda 20%
Benes
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -2 · Zacharda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.91 / Zacharda 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13095314
Benes1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 50 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Zacharda1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 20 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it64% 14 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayZacharda5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%4 of 4
AwayZacharda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S2Benes4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S3Benes6Zacharda4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes4Zacharda2n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
S5Benes2Zacharda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesZachardaB − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.138.0−0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 567 vs 118 / 25247.6%46.8%270 / 567 vs 118 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.91/Zacharda 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 10:55P. Benes—1111143J. Zacharda—78120
LAug 25 · 11:25P. Benes—5111081J. Zacharda—11612113
LAug 24 · 08:25P. Benes—6850J. Zacharda—1111113
WJul 28 · 06:55P. Benes—116117123J. Zacharda—611911102
WJul 15 · 13:59P. Benes—111011133J. Zacharda—9128111
WJul 15 · 11:25P. Benes—871111113J. Zacharda—11119682
WDec 12 · 16:55P. Benes—1111113J. Zacharda—8840
LNov 6 · 10:25P. Benes—1011101122J. Zacharda—125129113
LOct 24 · 17:45P. Benes—76111192J. Zacharda—111176113
LOct 24 · 14:40P. Benes—5970J. Zacharda—1111113
P. Benes10
WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101LSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113WSep 7 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.50119181P. Benes1.5071111113WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133
J. Zacharda10
LSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113LSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111LSep 7 · 13:58J. Zacharda2.0021911392D. Vesecky1.731117211113WSep 7 · 12:55J. Zacharda2.631111113D. Vesecky1.449680LSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113LSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda2.385550M. Cerny1.531111113LSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102LSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292
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