TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095234
Played Sep 7Finished
David Bochnak
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1185111131210––
Pavel Benes
Away
2.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 71 set 4, 12-10 — our read held David Bochnak at 55.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 34–15 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 15 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Bochnak beat Benes 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (68%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-15 in 49
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 19 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1846 vs Benes 1786
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak +2 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.33 / Benes 2.85
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Bochnak)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13095234
Bochnak1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 134 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 101 of 127
Benes2.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 49 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak8wins
AwayBenes2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak80%4 of 5
AwayBenes20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Bochnak9Benes1n = 10Bochnak took 9 of 10
S3Bochnak7Benes3n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S4Bochnak4Benes4n = 8split evenly
S5Bochnak3Benes2n = 5Bochnak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakBenesBochnak − BenesBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.637.1+7.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 595 vs 270 / 56662.2%47.7%370 / 595 vs 270 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.33/Benes 2.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 21:25D. Bochnak—1281115113P. Benes—101171772
WAug 28 · 07:25D. Bochnak—91111113P. Benes—114081
WAug 26 · 13:33D. Bochnak—1112113P. Benes—91090
LAug 26 · 11:50D. Bochnak—12111111132P. Benes—146134153
WAug 16 · 18:00D. Bochnak—8111110113P. Benes—11781292
WAug 16 · 16:50D. Bochnak—111288113P. Benes—510111172
WJul 22 · 20:25D. Bochnak—61111113P. Benes—118921
LApr 23 · 11:20D. Bochnak—11114872P. Benes—661111113
WMar 15 · 18:55D. Bochnak—81111113P. Benes—115681
WMar 15 · 18:25D. Bochnak—1111113P. Benes—6680
D. Bochnak10
WSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek2.751111123D. Bochnak1.4096100WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103
P. Benes10
LSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113WSep 7 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.50119181P. Benes1.5071111113WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952
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