TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091509
Played Sep 7Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121187111715711
David Bochnak
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:07 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 17-15
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 109 set 5, 7-11 — our read held David Bochnak at 73.2%
109 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 15–33 David Bochnak Pavel Benes has won 15 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:07What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-33 in 48
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 18 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1796 vs Bochnak 1835
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 100% vs Bochnak 60%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 90% vs Bochnak 50%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +5 · Bochnak +1
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 3.00 / Bochnak 1.36
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Bochnak)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13091509
Benes3.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 49 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Bochnak1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 134 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 101 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes2wins
AwayBochnak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes20%1 of 5
AwayBochnak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes0Bochnak10n = 10Bochnak took 10 of 10
S3Benes4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Benes3Bochnak5n = 8Bochnak took 5 of 8
S5Benes2Bochnak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesBochnakBenes − BochnakBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.642.9−7.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 565 vs 369 / 59447.8%62.1%270 / 565 vs 369 / 594Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBenes 3.00/Bochnak 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 07:25P. Benes—114081D. Bochnak—91111113
LAug 26 · 13:33P. Benes—91090D. Bochnak—1112113
WAug 26 · 11:50P. Benes—146134153D. Bochnak—12111111132
LAug 16 · 18:00P. Benes—11781292D. Bochnak—8111110113
LAug 16 · 16:50P. Benes—510111172D. Bochnak—111288113
LJul 22 · 20:25P. Benes—118921D. Bochnak—61111113
WApr 23 · 11:20P. Benes—661111113D. Bochnak—11114872
LMar 15 · 18:55P. Benes—115681D. Bochnak—81111113
LMar 15 · 18:25P. Benes—6680D. Bochnak—1111113
LFeb 24 · 16:55P. Benes—1091171D. Bochnak—12116113
P. Benes10
LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113WSep 7 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.50119181P. Benes1.5071111113WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952
D. Bochnak10
WSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101WSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek2.751111123D. Bochnak1.4096100WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103
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