TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091045
Played Sep 7Finished
Marek Kulisek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117911111811––
Pavel Benes
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Kulisek above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Benes at 59.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Marek Kulisek 13–25 Pavel Benes Marek Kulisek has won 13 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-25 in 38
Benes
Correct
gap of 12 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulisek 1673 vs Benes 1778
Benes
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulisek 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulisek 70% vs Benes 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulisek -2 · Benes +4
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulisek 2.50 / Benes 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Benes)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13091045
Kulisek2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 117 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back24% 41 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Benes1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 81 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it75% 55 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKulisek4wins
AwayBenes6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulisekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulisek2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Kulisek6Benes4n = 10Kulisek took 6 of 10
S3Kulisek5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Kulisek2Benes5n = 7Benes took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKulisekBenesK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.434.8−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulisekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 868 vs 270 / 56744.7%47.6%388 / 868 vs 270 / 567Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKulisek 2.50/Benes 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 07:55M. Kulisek—6680P. Benes—1111113
LJul 20 · 15:25M. Kulisek—10118101P. Benes—12511123
LJul 9 · 07:25M. Kulisek—761191P. Benes—11118113
LJul 7 · 18:35M. Kulisek—119731P. Benes—61111113
LJul 7 · 14:55M. Kulisek—4970P. Benes—1111113
LJul 2 · 14:55M. Kulisek—811951P. Benes—11611113
WJun 30 · 21:25M. Kulisek—91111113P. Benes—119981
WJun 28 · 19:20M. Kulisek—811119113P. Benes—11951152
WJun 27 · 20:25M. Kulisek—111111113P. Benes—133361
WJun 26 · 19:50M. Kulisek—1111113P. Benes—8840
M. Kulisek10
LSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 6 · 21:48D. Hyza1.3611114113M. Kulisek3.00861191LSep 6 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.7577110D. Hyza1.401111133WSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113WSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133WSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113WSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 19:25O. Fiklik2.00971211113M. Kulisek1.73111110672WSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111
P. Benes10
WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030
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