TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091248
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191161210––––
David Bochnak
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Michal Brozek at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 10–8 David Bochnak David Bochnak has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:17What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Brozek
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1685 vs Bochnak 1851
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 60% vs Bochnak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 60% vs Bochnak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -2 · Bochnak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.75 / Bochnak 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Bochnak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13091248
Brozek2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 84 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Bochnak1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 134 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 101 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek4wins
AwayBochnak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek75%3 of 4
AwayBochnak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S2Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S3Brozek5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S4Brozek6Bochnak3n = 9Brozek took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekBochnakBrozek − BochnakBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.540.0−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime534 / 1026 vs 368 / 59252.1%62.2%534 / 1026 vs 368 / 592Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBrozek 2.75/Bochnak 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 15:25M. Brozek—91181182D. Bochnak—116119113
LAug 2 · 22:28M. Brozek—431181D. Bochnak—11115113
LAug 2 · 18:55M. Brozek—9680D. Bochnak—1111113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Brozek—913921D. Bochnak—111111113
WJul 23 · 18:35M. Brozek—11115123D. Bochnak—8311101
WJul 23 · 17:25M. Brozek—11513113D. Bochnak—6111191
LJul 22 · 22:33M. Brozek—891171D. Bochnak—11116113
WJul 22 · 21:25M. Brozek—61111113D. Bochnak—118791
LJul 19 · 22:40M. Brozek—11101211102D. Bochnak—812149123
WJul 19 · 19:55M. Brozek—11511123D. Bochnak—9119101
M. Brozek10
LSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972
D. Bochnak10
WSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103LSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113
Upcoming Matches
M. Brozek
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D. Bochnak
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